Accounting for population structure reveals ambiguity in the Zaire Ebolavirus reservoir dynamics

By Bram Vrancken*, Tony Wawina-Bokalanga*, Bert Vanmechelen, Joan Martí-Carreras, Miles W. Carroll, Justus Nsio, Jimmy Kapetshi, Sheila Makiala-Mandanda, Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Guy Baele, Kurt Vermeire, Valentijn Vergote, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke, and Piet Maes.

* contributed equally

The origin of emerging Zaire ebolavirus is investigated at each outbreak. To reliably do so a good understanding of the Zaire ebolavirus in its reservoir is needed. Therefore ebolavirus full genomes were used to investigate between-outbreak circulation dynamics. The results highlight the need to appropriately account for the limits of coalescent models when reconstructing between-outbreak evolutionary history. Contrary to what was expected the circulation dynamics of Ebola virus in its animal reservoir appeared highly uncertain.

Published March 2020 in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases